The Post-CAQ realignment of Québec’s political parties
The last half-century of Québec’s political duopoly has been dominated by the Nationalism-federalism Axis, as represented by Separatist PQ party and Federalist Liberal party. By 2022, after 4 years of CAQ, we can announce without a doubt this era is over. (I was inspired by this G&M piece)
How it first started
The Quebec politics of the mid 1900’s was classic “blue vs red”. The Liberals then led by Louis-Alexandre Taschereau had been in power for 39 years. In 1935–1936 the Liberals had a minority government and they lost a vote of no confidence that led to an election. Then Conservative leader Maurice Duplessis built a coalition with the dissatisfied Liberals and independents to beat the Liberals under the “Union Nationale” banner. Between this time to 1968, both parties claimed to represent Québec’s interests, autonomy and French language, typically with the blue party saying it “louder for people in the back”.
Quiet revolution, Independence movement and Daniel Johnson (66–68) signed the grave of the Union Nationale. Liberals of Jean Lesage were popular and nationalist but in the early 70’s, a more radical branch of the Liberals strongly considered independence of Québec. With René Levesque they formed the PQ. Decades later, via 2 referendums, the separatists lost by a small margin. The reins of power continued to be exchanged between Liberals and PQ for decades, until they mathematically couldn’t in the 2010's.
Who is the Coalition Avenir Québec?
In a previous medium story, I explained why the CAQ was the new PQ but without independence because how they challenge the boundaries of the Canadian constitution and the ex-ADQ nearly all left ship. The full story would necessitate further investigation about the slow downfall of the “yes” in the polls about independence with the rise of insatisfaction with the Liberals or PQ. The CAQ as an idea was pondered by ex-separatists of the “lucid” side of Lucien Bouchard (rather than idealist) and ex-Liberals who thought the PLQ was getting corrupted or too soft on National identity questions. Being structured on the graveyard of the ADQ party helped a lot. For insiders; the best of both parties, but for outsiders; the worst of both parties. The nationalism of the PQ with the economics of the Liberals. (From a leftist perspective, all 3 are neoliberals. From the right, all 3 are state-interventionists)
François Legault, first and current leader of the CAQ, was an important minister of Finances or Health under the 90’s PQ. When creating the new party in 2011, he claimed that the independence debate should be put on pause for 10 years if not permanently. The polls said his party would one day destabilize politics and swallow most of the PQ. During the first elections under this banner, the CAQ was accused of “splitting the vote” with the spoiler effect of FPTP voting system .. by both sides. First in 2012 by splitting the “federalist votes” + the “students must pay more” thus letting the PQ win its last election and secondly in 2014 by splitting the “nationalist votes” + the “muslims are scary” thus letting the PLQ win a majority.
Is the CAQ the new Union Nationale?
2018 was unusual. Legault’s victory relied on low participation rate, weak performance of the PQ, disillusionment on Quebec’s independence and the rise of populism worldwide. At first I would say the politics of UN and CAQ are different because they are separated by half a century. For critics, the current shiftings could lead us to a very similar paradigm, but it could make more sense to compare Legault to Daniel Johnson’s UN than Maurice’s UN. First comparison comes the small dose of populism and jingoism that goes with popularity in the polls. The CAQ and ADQ’s disdain for Montreal [home of more immigrants, cultural minorities and English speakers] can be felt electorally and rhetorically similar to Daniel Johnson’s after the 1966 elections. The social policies of the CAQ are very conformist. The state secularism bill that restrict what state officials can wear has been criticized as liberticide and for the discriminatory effect considering how different cultures or religions are practiced. More on that, if it wasn’t from the pressure from Secularists of the opposition parties, the cross of Duplessis would have remained in the Salon Bleu as well as many other “heritage” symbols that were left on some government buildings. The bill that reformed the civil code for the family law was deemed very “cisnormative” if not transphobic by LGBT groups. The will to put French as the only official language is a pain in the ass for immigrants and minority English speakers who struggle to communicate in French. Regardless of what we think of those bills, the CAQ rules for the majority.
The second comparison was made by the opposition during Québec City’s debates on the Tramway and 3rd bridge projects. Vice-Prime-Minister Geneviève Guilbault accidentally said the quiet part out loud when she said there needed to be a point of service for all electoral counties of the Québec region. Knowing there is a CAQ MNA for 9 of those 11 counties, (12 out of 14 if we count Lévis) it rung an old bell saying “we want to make cool stuff where we win”. As did the UN, by a smaller degree, CAQ currently benefits from a form of gerrymandering.
Most obvious for the last, Mr Legault like many nationalists do not Loathe Maurice Duplessis. In fact some CAQ supporters increasingly affirm that Québec’s history has been harsh on Duplessis and not grateful enough for what he accomplished. The cherry on sundæ came on when Mr Legault himself rebuked the Progressive figurehead when compared to Duplessis ; “Ok he had flaws but he defended his nation, he wasn’t a *woke* like the leader of QS”. During the 2021 Federal elections, Mr Legault claimed to be the “current godfather” of the Quebec nation like Duplessis was and legit tried to influence the vote in favour of the Conservatives but failed.
Québec of tomorrow?
It is too soon to affirm what the next paradigm will be. We could go more “Canadian” with traditional line up of Blue party vs Red party vs Orange party.. with all of them trying to keep Québec special, distinct and autonomous in their own way. For that to happen, one must assume that the separatist PQ would disappear slowly, mostly at the benefit of the Orange party ; Québec Solidaire, younger and more progressive-left leaning separatists. QS could turn like our provincial NDP if independence is eventually given up. It would also need the irrelevance of a fifth party called “Conservative party of Québec” comparable to libertarian and populist parties in the west of Canada and outside such as ; the PPC or the UKIP minus the separatism. Their rising in popularity would be an anomaly if it wasn’t from opposition of COVID pandemic measures. (yeah it’s still a thing in 2022)
If the CAQ follows the path of the U-N, they will remain for long but will likely fall with their leader unless they renew after him. Megadeth without Dave Mustaine is a dead band. The health and education systems are still crumbling and the economy shows sign of drastic instability with labour shortage and inflation. Quebecers will eventually need results instead of endless culture wars.
For those of you who are more visual : 2008–2012–2014–2018-polls
